Find Out Exactly Why You Missed Your Marathon Goal AND What To Change In The Next Block... Or You Pay Nothing

Six failure modes tested against your own splits. One named cause. Two changes. No coach, no lab, no new plan to buy.

Let me start by showing you what the verdict looks like:

That is a real verdict page. One cause, scored out of 100. The alternatives ruled out with the number that rules them out. Then exactly two changes for the next block.

You get that from your own race in about ten minutes.

Introducing: The Marathon Autopsy

The Marathon Autopsy is a post-race diagnostic workbook. You enter your goal, your finish, your 5 km splits, the weather, twelve weeks of training volume, and what you ate. It tests six ways a marathon goes wrong against your data and tells you which one it was.

The simple goal: know why you missed, and what to change, before the next block starts.

• You don't need a coach or a lab test
• You don't need perfect data; the Dashboard tells you what was tested
• You don't need any software beyond Excel, Numbers, or Google Sheets

Why the forum answer is always wrong

Post your splits and you get a menu: too hot, went out too fast, should have taken more gels, needed more long runs.

Every answer is plausible. None of them was checked against your data.

So you pick one, change three things at once, and sixteen weeks later you still cannot say what worked.

The Autopsy replaces the guess with a procedure. A fuelling failure and a pacing failure both give you a slow second half. They do not start in the same place, they do not have the same shape, and heart rate does not behave the same way before the fade. The workbook knows the difference.

Here's what happens after you buy...

Minute 0: You enter the race

• Goal, finish, and the cumulative clock at every 5 km (or 3 miles in the miles edition)
• Heart rate if you have it, the temperature and dew point, twelve weeks of volume, your fuelling, three yes/no flags
• Or paste the bonus prompts into Claude or ChatGPT with Strava or Garmin connected and let them fill the cells for you

Minute 10: You read the verdict

• One primary cause with a confidence level and an evidence score out of 100
• Each alternative ruled out with a sentence built from your own numbers
• Whether the goal was ever inside your fitness, from your recent half marathon
• A re-attempt decision: same race, different race, or reset the goal

Weeks 1 to 16: You change two things

• Exactly two changes for the next block, and what to leave alone
• A 16-week skeleton shaped by the verdict, with a week-10 tune-up target that tells you early whether the goal is on
• A scenario planner that projects the next finish on conservative, realistic, and best-case recovery, capped so it cannot flatter you

WARNING: This is NOT a training plan

It does not tell you what to run on Tuesday. It tells you what to change in the plan you already have, and what to leave alone.

It is also not a chatbot, not a subscription, and not a model that changes under you. It is a spreadsheet with 817 live formulas that you can audit cell by cell. Every threshold and every weight is visible and editable. Every sentence on the Verdict page traces back to a number you typed.

This is for you if...

• You ran 3:02 chasing 2:59, or 3:31 chasing 3:29, or 4:04 chasing 3:59
• You set a personal best that still missed the goal you trained sixteen weeks for
• You have run the same race twice with the same result
• Someone told you "you went out too fast" without opening your splits
• You are about to enter the next race and buy the same plan again
• You have a GPS watch with the 5 km or mile splits from the day

It is not for first marathons, misses of more than fifteen minutes (the cause is rarely subtle), or anyone without split data.

You do not need...

• A coach, a lab, or a lactate test
• Heart-rate data (it sharpens the thermal call; splits alone separate pacing from fuelling)
• To be fast: the fingerprints are the same at 2:50 and at 4:30
• Perfect data: the Dashboard tells you how many of the six modes were fully tested
• Any software beyond Excel, Numbers, or Google Sheets
• To decide anything about the next block before you have read the verdict

You just need one thing: the splits from your watch and ten minutes.

What changes when you know the cause

• The next block becomes an experiment with a control. Two changes, not five. When the result moves, you know what moved it.
• You know whether the target was ever inside your fitness before you pay for the next entry.
• You have an answer to the forum: a Verdict page with the alternatives ruled out in writing.
• You bring a coach the conversation they want to have, instead of the one a thread cannot.
• Week 10 tells you whether the goal is on, so the decision is made before race week, not after it.

Did I mention the three bonuses?

Bonus 1: Strava and Garmin Data Prompts (€7 value)

Eight copy-paste prompts for Claude or ChatGPT with a connected Strava or Garmin account.

• Splits and segment heart rate pulled straight from the race activity, keyed to the workbook's cells
• Weather, twelve weeks of volume, marathon-pace kilometres, and your best recent half, without a calculator
• A validation prompt that checks the inputs before you paste them

Ten minutes instead of an evening.

Bonus 2: Weekly On-Track Review (€7 value)

A prompt you set as a Monday routine for the next block.

• Reads the week from Strava or Garmin and compares it with where the block should be
• Returns one of four verdicts: on track, at risk, off track, or rethink the goal
• Then two adjustments, never more

Bonus 3: Race Week Checklist Workbook (€7 value)

A separate spreadsheet for the last seven days.

• Seven-day countdown and a race-morning timeline computed from your start time
• Kit and bag-check lists, and a heat-adjusted pace card with gels aligned to aid stations
• A printable one-pager. Same heat table as the Autopsy, so the two agree

Here's everything you get today

Don't decide now...
Run the Autopsy risk-free.

I am confident enough in the verdict to back it with a 60-day, no-questions-asked refund.

You have two full months to run it on your race...

Take the two changes into the next block...

If the verdict does not hold up...

If you already knew the answer and the workbook only confirmed it...

Any reason at all...

Reply to your receipt email and every cent comes back. You keep the files.

No questions, no form, no hassle.

The risk is on my side. The only way to lose is to run the same sixteen weeks again without knowing why the last ones ended the way they did.

No countdown. No launch price.

It is €27 and it stays €27. There is no timer on this page because there is nothing to count down to.

The only deadline is yours. An autopsy done in week one of the next block changes sixteen weeks of training. One done in week eight changes eight. One done after the next race changes nothing about it.

I built this after missing the same goal twice

I am Pedro. Nine marathons since 2022, from 3:48 to 2:52. On paper that is a good progression. In practice it includes a DNF, a Boston seven minutes slower than the Chicago before it, and two races fast enough to be personal bests that still missed the goal I had trained sixteen weeks for.

Each time, the forum answer was a menu. Heat, pacing, gels, mileage. I picked one, changed three things, and the next block was a new experiment with no control. I wrote the Autopsy so the answer would be derived from my own splits rather than voted on by strangers. This is the tool I wanted at 3:06 in Boston, and the one I used before Valencia.

If you know the feeling of a sixteen-week block ending in a miss you cannot explain, this was written for you.

Frequently asked questions